I come from the scholarly publishing industry. My first jobs were with scholarly publishers going back to 1969. I started my own company called Microform Review Inc. in 1971. This venture was based around a quarterly print journal called MICROFORM REVIEW which reviewed scholarly micropublications for the approximately 3,500 research libraries worldwide.

By the mid-1980s I had nearly 25 subscription journals and database directories. By this time it was becoming apparent that research libraries were being buried by the constant ratcheting up of subscription prices by not only my company, but particularly by the scientific and medical journal publishers. There were journals in those days that sold for over $10,000 per year --- and they were published only quarterly or annually. I understand that today these very same journals can cost as much as $30,000 per year!

Research libraries have needed some mechanism to fight this journal price escalation. The reason being that as journal prices rise, libraries are forced to cut back on purchasing books and other materials so that they can maintain a journal subscription that is needed by a certain department (which might have only a handful of readers per year). Journal prices rise much more rapidly than book prices. Therefore the percentage of a library budget going to research journals exapnds yearly to the detriment of the book budget.

I see the Google Scholar program announced today as an inexpensive means for scholars and scientists to make sure that their papers and articles are distributed inexpensively and throrougly. Efforts at electronic distribution have failed over the years because of the difficulty of making sure that these materials are easily findable and then readable.

Google's reach might be the beginnings of a new vertical industry within the Google empire (and for that matter within other powerful search engines such as those from Yahoo and MSN). Google and the others will make their money by selling targeted ads page by page.

What I see is a cottage industry developing (both for profits and non-profits) who can use Google's reach to rapidly and efficiently find wide circulation.

There are lots of currents running through this post and it might be confusing to some readers. But mark my words. As someone who has seen it all in the content publishing industry, Google Scholar is the start of something very big. It is yet another example of how the Internet can turn a traditional industry on its head in a flash.