Robert Shiller Plays The Irrational Exuberance Card Once Again

|

Noted economist Robert Shiller has written another book exploiting the term "irrational exuberance." The new tome entitled "Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition" (Princeton University Press, 2005) attacks present day housing market valuations. The previous Shiller book using the same title (a term coined by Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board in 1996) dealt with Internet valuations.

I am certainly not an economist (only a Ph.D. in American history) and will not add my two cents to the housing bubble debate. But I offered an extremely critical analysis of the original Shiller book in August 2001 that has proved, over time, to be largely correct. I felt then, as now, that the Internet was still only at the beginning of its effect on world commerce and information. Shiller's did "not get the Internet" in 2001. He played on the rampant investment fears of the time and parlayed this into a best seller.

Based on Shiller's analysis of the future of the Internet, I would suggest that his new book is probably as clueless as the original.

(By the way, please note my mistake about who coined the term "irrational exuberance" in the article linked above. Alan Greenspan, noted above, was the creator.)

1 Comments

Mac McCarthy said:

By the way, Shiller, credited by some with predicting the dot-com crash, according to free-market enthusiast Don Luskin was predicting the dot-com crash starting in 1996--four years ahead. His book just coincidentally came out in 2000, when the crash actually occurred--so he's more a broken clock who's eventually right about something but not a reliable prognosticator.



Unlike, say, you.....



;-)



So he might very well be right about the housing bubble--eventually, anyway; but not because of any special insight he might have.



It reminds me of a bunch of people sitting around predicting the sex of a child soon to be born, using various superstitions in support of their predictions. Eventually, some of them turn out to be right. But not because they have predictive power; they are just bein Shillers...



--mac mccarthy

Leave a comment


Type the characters you see in the picture above.



JupiterOnlineMedia

internet.comearthweb.comDevx.commediabistro.comGraphics.com

Search:

Jupitermedia Corporation has two divisions: Jupiterimages and JupiterOnlineMedia

Jupitermedia Corporate Info


Legal Notices, Licensing, Reprints, & Permissions, Privacy Policy.

Advertise | Newsletters | Tech Jobs | Shopping | E-mail Offers

Solutions
Whitepapers and eBooks
IBM Whitepaper: Innovative Collaboration to Advance Your Business
Internet.com eBook: Real Life Rails
Avaya Article: Call Control XML - Powerful, Standards-Based Call Control
Internet.com eBook: The Pros and Cons of Outsourcing
Go Parallel Article: Scalable Parallelism with Intel(R) Threading Building Blocks
Internet.com eBook: Best Practices for Developing a Web Site
IBM CXO Whitepaper: The 2008 Global CEO Study "The Enterprise of the Future"
Avaya Article: Call Control XML in Action - A CCXML Auto Attendant
Go Parallel Article: James Reinders on the Intel Parallel Studio Beta Program
IBM CXO Whitepaper: Unlocking the DNA of the Adaptable Workforce--The Global Human Capital Study 2008
Adobe Acrobat Connect Pro: Web Conferencing and eLearning Whitepapers
Go Parallel Article: Getting Started with TBB on Windows
HP eBook: Storage Networking , Part 1
MORE WHITEPAPERS, EBOOKS, AND ARTICLES
Webcasts
Go Parallel Video: Intel(R) Threading Building Blocks: A New Method for Threading in C++
HP Video: Is Your Data Center Ready for a Real World Disaster?
Microsoft Partner Portal Video: Microsoft Gold Certified Partners Build Successful Practices
HP On Demand Webcast: Virtualization in Action
Go Parallel Video: Performance and Threading Tools for Game Developers
Rackspace Hosting Center: Customer Videos
Intel vPro Developer Virtual Bootcamp
HP Disaster-Proof Solutions eSeminar
HP On Demand Webcast: Discover the Benefits of Virtualization
MORE WEBCASTS, PODCASTS, AND VIDEOS
Downloads and eKits
Microsoft Download: Silverlight 2 Software Development Kit Beta 2
30-Day Trial: SPAMfighter Exchange Module
Red Gate Download: SQL Toolbelt
Iron Speed Designer Application Generator
Microsoft Download: Silverlight 2 Beta 2 Runtime
MORE DOWNLOADS, EKITS, AND FREE TRIALS
Tutorials and Demos
IBM IT Innovation Article: Green Servers Provide a Competitive Advantage
Microsoft Article: Expression Web 2 for PHP Developers--Simplify Your PHP Applications
Featured Algorithm: Intel Threading Building Blocks - parallel_reduce
MORE TUTORIALS, DEMOS AND STEP-BY-STEP GUIDES